Reader question: we just added two crews. Do we turn the ads up now or wait for spring?
A mover added capacity right as the season slowed. When to raise ad spend in November, when to hold it, and what to do with spare crew hours either way.
"We hired and trained two new crews over the summer. Now it is November and the phones are slowing down. Do we raise our ad budget to keep them busy, or cut back and wait for spring?"
This is one of the most common questions a mover asks in the fall, and the honest answer is: it depends on three numbers you can check this week. Here is how to work through it.
First, know what the slow season actually looks like
Late fall and winter are slower for most moving companies, but not dead. People still move in November, December and January. They move for job transfers, divorces, estate sales, leases ending, and families deciding a parent should not spend another winter alone. Office moves often land over holidays because the building is empty.
What changes is volume and price sensitivity. There are fewer searches, but there are also fewer movers bidding hard on them, because many owners cut their budgets in October out of habit. That can make winter clicks cheaper than summer clicks in some markets.
So the question is not "are there customers in winter." There are. The question is whether you can buy them at a cost that makes sense.
Number one: your cost per booked move this fall
Look at September and October. Divide your total ad spend by the number of moves those ads actually booked. Not leads. Booked moves.
If you do not know that number, stop here. Raising a budget you cannot measure is guessing. Set up call tracking and tag every booked job by source for the next 30 days, then come back to the question.
If you do know it, compare it to what an average winter job earns you after crew pay and truck costs. As a hypothetical, a local two-bedroom move that bills $1,200 and leaves $400 after labor and fuel can support a cost per booked move up to perhaps $150 and still be worth running.
Number two: what an idle crew costs you
New crews that sit idle cost money even when they are not working. Guaranteed hours, insurance, truck payments and the risk of losing trained movers to a competitor who keeps them busy.
Losing a trained crew lead in January and rehiring in April is often more expensive than a few hundred dollars of extra ad spend per week. If your cost per booked move is within range, keeping the crews working usually wins.
Number three: where you sit on reviews and rating
More ad spend pointed at a weak profile wastes money. The median moving company in our data has 30 Google reviews and an average rating of 4.4. 18.6% sit under four stars, which is a much bigger share than in most trades, because moving is high stakes and things go wrong.
If you are well under the median or under four stars, spend the first two weeks of November on reviews before you raise the budget. Ask every customer from the summer rush. They had a good experience months ago and many were never asked. The reviews guide has the exact texts.
So what should you do
Raise the budget now if your cost per booked move is known and within range, your rating is four stars or better, and your crews would otherwise sit. Raise it gradually, by 20 to 30% a week, and watch the cost per booked move each Monday.
Hold the budget if you cannot measure cost per booked move yet. Fix tracking first.
Spend on the profile instead if your reviews or rating are weak. The ads will work better in a month.
Ways to fill crew hours that are not ads
Ads are not the only lever. Several winter jobs come from people you already know.
- Past customers. Text everyone who moved with you this year. Ask if a friend, parent or coworker is moving. A short referral offer, such as $50 off their next move, costs less than most clicks.
- Real estate agents and property managers. Winter listings still close. A property manager with turnover units needs move-outs handled. Drop off rate sheets in person.
- Senior living communities. Move-ins happen year-round, and families often decide over the holidays. Ask the move-in coordinator what they need.
- Labor-only and packing jobs. Load-only and pack-only work keeps crews busy between full moves.
The slow season guide covers these in more depth.
The one thing to avoid
Do not drop your prices hard to fill the calendar. Deep winter discounts train shoppers to expect them, attract the most price-sensitive customers, and often lead to more complaints, which hurts your rating going into spring. If you discount, discount on a specific slow day of the week, not across the board.
You hired those crews because you believed the business could grow. Winter is when that bet gets tested. Run the three numbers, then decide. If you want to see what your missed calls cost while you are deciding, try the calculator.
If you want help running winter ads or a past-customer campaign, the free 14-day trial covers any service, no card. Text or call (385) 396-5586.
Steven has spent the last several years running growth campaigns for local service businesses, moving companies among them, and builds the benchmark datasets on this site from public Google listings. About the editor